The accession of Cyprus to the European Union has completely changed the equation. Even at the last moment Mr. Denktash and the Turkish establishment tried to influence the decision of the European Union. They issued several threatening statements and insisted that Cyprus should not be accepted to the Union.
The Union and the government of the Republic faced all these threats with patience and self-constraint, knowing quite well that Turkey was not able to implement any of them.
This policy has been fully vindicated, since shortly after accession all threats will have been forgotten. The reaction in the occupied areas after Cyprus's accession was dramatic.
We witnessed the two huge spontaneous demonstrations which conveyed clearly and loudly the message: "enough is enough we want a solution now". We are therefore facing a completely new situation now which is changing the equation and it is hoped that earlier or later will lead to the reunification of the island.
Let us therefore examine in somewhat greater detail why the accession of Cyprus to the Union should at last lead to the solution. We start with Turkey. Turkey has for some time now realized that through accession to the E. For a long time a significant part of the Turkish establishment was under the illusion that Turkey could succeed in joining the Union without radically changing the basic characteristics of the country's political system i.
Furthermore, they hoped they could at infinitum deny the recognition of the separate identity of the Kurdish people, the respect of human rights and continue with the illegal occupation of North Cyprus. The political system in all E. In the E. Human rights are fully respected, equality of nations and communities is a reality and of course the use of force to occupy another country is unimaginable. Turkey's leadership thought that they could get away by underlining the special character of Turkey as the spear of NATO in the region.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union and recently the events in Iraq proved that there is no such a role anymore.
If Turkey wants to join the Union it cannot be treated differently, it has to become a democratic nation respecting all the basic principles of the Union like all other countries. On the Cyprus issue Turkey for a long time was trying to make capital of the fact that the solution of the Cyprus problem was not one of the Copenhagen criteria.
This is absolutely true. However, the Union has sent a very clear message to Turkey: although the Cyprus problem is not one of the Copenhagen criteria the solution of the Cyprus problem is the best proof Turkey can give to the E.
It was the realization of this simple truth subsequent to Cyprus's accession that has made the government of Mr. Erdogan to change its attitude towards the solution of the Cyprus problem. They are preparing the ground towards accepting the Annan Plan as a basis for negotiations leading to a solution.
Until recently, however, Mr Denktash and Turkey were claiming that the Annan Plan was dead and insisted on the recognition of the so-called realities i. This propaganda became meaningless after the European Union accepted Cyprus as a whole into the Union.
Assuming Turkey was to continue the occupation of Cyprus and non-recognition of the Republic it would find itself in a very difficult and rather ridiculous situation. Turkey is applying to join the Union of 25 members, but at the same time refuses to recognize one of the 25 countries. This fact alone would be sufficient to kill Turkey's application to join the Union. Therefore Turkey after May will have to recognize the Republic, re-open its Embassy and downgrade its representation in the so-called 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus'.
Furthermore, they realize that it is not possible to persist with their application while occupying by force North Cyprus i. It became thus obvious to most in Turkey that to get a date for the start of accession negotiations by the end of , they have to solve the Cyprus problem.
They have to accept the Annan Plan as a basis for negotiation and convince both the European Union and the international community that they are serious in their desire to reach a solution.
We must not forget however that we are still not there. Many in the establishment try desperately to maintain the status-quo and secure a date for accession negotiations without its prior solution.
The need therefore exists but there may well be delays. Coming now to the Turkish Cypriots: We know that many believed Mr Denktash's well-known arguments against accession. What options do they have? Consequently, Turkish Cypriots remained outside the EU, despite favouring reunification.
Time is not our friend It has become increasingly difficult to find a solution. The discovery and exploitation of natural gas in its territorial waters should have served as an economic incentive for compromise. Unfortunately, it only complicated things further, leading to the confrontation in the Eastern Mediterranean over gas reserves between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots against Greece and Greek Cypriots. Its ever-tightening grip is eroding the culture, identity, values and secular lifestyle of Turkish Cypriots.
Desecularisation combined with demographic change has made reconciliation harder. Turkey sent bureaucrats to poor, rural areas of the north, promising assistance to people in economic straits. Finally, three days before the elections, in cahoots with Ankara, Tatar reopened part of the fenced-off ghost town of Varosha for the first time since Cyprus was divided in Previously inhabited by Greek Cypriots, it was seen as an important bargaining chip in the peace talks.
The closing of the crossing points in the early stages of the pandemic has been a travesty for relations between people in the two communities, who had been free to come and go for 18 years. The short supply of political will Despite the numerous creative and implementable solutions to the thorniest issues being proposed by experts from both communities, real political will — a readiness to compromise or take calculated risks — has been absent.
Winning elections have proven to be more important than effectively selling the benefits of reunification to the population. The groundwork necessary to build trust has never been carried out adequately. Peace processes have been leader-driven and excluded society, with limited cooperation between the two communities. Hardliners on both sides but particularly Greek Cypriot spread disinformation and scaremonger.
Nonetheless, there is one area where all parties excel: the blame game. This is the time for big decisions The current situation is unsustainable.
The experts interviewed by Euronews were not optimistic that the UN meeting would lead to a major breakthrough in the peace talks. The major issue, she told Euronews, is a shift in the stated position of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot leadership from reunifying the country as a federation to a two-state deal. They argue it would fall outside the federal framework the two sides agreed on 44 years ago and enshrined in multiple UN Security Council resolutions since then.
Greek Cypriots "say that they prefer a federal Cyprus Republic, but they don't want it. They only declare it," Ozgoker said, noting that they rejected a constitution with a federal arrangement in a referendum, while Turkish Cypriots endorsed it at the time. I underline that within a Confederation, two sovereign and independent states can cooperate together, can keep a full EU membership and also become a NATO member," Ozgoker told Euronews.
Koukkides-Procopiou furthermore noted "the objection of the Greek Cypriots to allow a very anachronistic system of guarantors and the presence of security forces in Cyprus". This is based on the treaties, the postcolonial treaties, which established the Republic of Cyprus," the expert explained. It's a non-question for them that the system can and should be scrapped. That's a major sticking point because no Greek Cypriot will ever feel safe if Turkey has any kind of legitimisation for intervening militarily in Cyprus," she noted, especially with Ankara's human rights record going "downhill".
Ozgoker told Euronews that a majority of Turkish Cypriots were in favour of Ankara remaining a guarantor "because of what happened in the past," referring to the intercommunal violence of the s and the Greek coup of He also said that a minority of the Turkish Cypriot community saw EU membership, rather than Ankara's backing, as a guarantee for their survival.
The election of a hardliner "doesn't give much hope" that peace efforts can succeed, according to the expert. A big part of the negotiations was conducted between the leaders of the two communities, despite the fact that the one is the President of an internationally recognised state and the other the leader of a Community.
But protocol, which no doubt matters in international relations, is not the obstacle here. The obstacle is that the Turkish Cypriots are so dependent on and from Turkey that they really do not have the ability to strike any deal if Turkey disagrees.
It is therefore a fallacy to think that because the two communities on the island perhaps genuinely want to end the division, this is going to happen. And it is lost energy, human resources, political capital, time, money and unfulfilled hopes to have the impotent Turkish Cypriot leader discussing with a democratically elected, internationally recognised and with full power to strike a deal President of the Republic of Cyprus.
It is very nice having the two leaders meeting, taking the customary picture, and trying to solve the details of how a re-unified island and its government may work. But, it is also fallacious! It depends on the Turkish government and particularly, at this moment, Erdogan. The place is called Ankara, the country is Turkey, the leader now is Erdogan, and what needs to be done is to end, first, the occupation and, second, the anachronism or the absurdity of a non EU country guaranteeing the rule of law and the security of an EU member state.
BBC, Stratejik Derinlik.
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